By: James Sherk

October 2004 (updated) Senate 2004 Preview: Senate analysis based on competitive level of each state race

This November, in addition to elections for the Presidency and the House of Representatives, Americans will also elect one third of the Senate, potentially either enlarging the narrow Republican majority, or handing control of the upper chamber to the Democrats.

While the Presidential campaign will likely overshadow news coverage of these Senate elections, all Americans - especially Christians - should nonetheless closely follow these races. The current narrow 51-49 Republican majority in the Senate is the chief factor restricting the GOP's ability to enact its agenda. Many of the laws that Republicans would like to pass, such as creating Personal Retirement Accounts, making President Bush's tax relief permanent, re-authorizing the PATRIOT act, and limiting frivolous lawsuits, are sound policies but have few moral implications for Christians. Economic efficiency arguments aside, sincere followers of Christ can and do disagree on the wisdom of lowering taxes or privatizing Social Security. However, other prominent issues facing America do have clear moral implications - abortion and same-sex marriage.

President Bush has made it clear that he supports the unborn child's right to life, and he opposes using the coercive power of the state to redefine the institution of marriage. Many Senate Democrats disagree. Using filibuster tactics that require a sixty-vote supermajority to override, they have blocked many of Bush's judicial nominees, strict constructionists who do not believe that the courts should legislate and whose rulings would over turn decades of left-wing judicial activism. More urgently, the next President could easily appoint three new justices to the Supreme Court, if the aging Justices Rehnquist, O'Conner, and Stevens retire. Three new strict constructionist justices would providing the margin to over turn Roe v. Wade and end the constitutional protection the Supreme Court gave to abortion on demand, while three new judicial activists on the Court would create a new activist majority that would probably discover a fundamental new right to same-sex "marriage" in the enumerations and penumbras of the constitution.

Senate Democrats have made it clear that they will filibuster any Supreme Count nominee who opposes Roe v. Wade, and it takes a fifty-one vote majority to reinterpret Senate rules to prohibit judicial filibusters. However, several moderate GOP senators oppose this tactic, and Republicans do not currently have the ability to end these filibusters. Additionally, many Democrats in the Senate oppose the Federal Marriage Amendment, which must pass both houses of Congress by a two-thirds margin before the states can vote to ratify it. In order for the Congress to amend the constitution to preserve the institution of marriage, or for President Bush to appoint Justices to the Supreme Court who will over turn Roe v. Wade, Republicans must pick up several seats in the Senate.

Consequently, many Christians may want to pay attention to the competitive Senate races, and understand the political terrain in America in the days and months leading up to the 2004 election. For this reason, the Evangel Society presents a race-by-race analysis of the most competitive Senate races and profiles of the leading candidates and their stands on important issues, and will update these reports as circumstances dictate during the year.

Highly Competitive Races

North Carolina (Open Seat)
First term Sen. John Edwards decided to abandon his Senate seat to seek the Democratic nomination for President, and is now campaigning for the Vice Presidency, creating another open seat in the South for the Democrats to defend. The Republicans unified behind Rep. Richard Burr before Edwards announced his retirement, and Burr remains unchallenged for the GOP nomination and has already raised eight and a half million dollars for his campaign. The pro-life Burr has a solidly conservative voting record, with a lifetime rating of 91 out of 100 from the American Conservative Union, and 92 out of 100 from the Christian Coalition.
The Democratic candidate is former Clinton Chief of Staff and 2002 Democratic Nominee Erskine Bowles. The pro-abortion Bowles could not persuade North Carolina's voters to elect him in 2002, and he received a lower share of the vote in that race, 45%, than any North Carolina Democratic nominee for Senate since the Second World War. Nonetheless, he still has high name identification from the 2002 campaign - unlike the virtually unknown Burr - a substantial fundraising apparatus, and leads Rep. Burr by a 49% - 40% margin in recent polling. This race should tighten in October as Burr's advertising raises his profile, but Edwards nomination has clearly improved Bowles chances.

Florida (Open Seat)
After dropping out of the race for the Democratic nomination for President, three term Senator and former two term Florida Governor Bob Graham announced that he would not run for re-election to the Senate. This has created a wide-open race to succeed him and both parties view the seat as a toss up race.

In the August 31st primary the Republicans nominated former Bush Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez. Martinez, who supports both the sanctity of life and the Federal Marriage amendment, would be the first Cuban-American ever elected to the U.S. Senate. The Democrats nominated former state education commissioner Betty Castor, a solid liberal who supports abortion, opposes the FMA, and could be expected to support Democratic filibusters of Bush's judicial nominees.

At the moment the outcome of this race is impossible to predict. Four successive hurricanes have hit Florida over the past month and a half, cutting both power and phone lines, and making polling results unreliable at best. What polls have been published give Castor a lead of between one and six points. However, Republicans are hopeful that Martinez's nomination will increase turnout in the historically Republican leaning Cuban American community, which could propel both Martinez and Bush to victory in this most crucial of swing states.

Oklahoma (Open)
Four term Senator Don Nickles decided to retire at the end of the 108th congress, creating a potentially competitive race to replace him. The Republicans nominated former Rep. Tom Coburn, a pro-life conservative. Coburn, who represented the most Democratic district in the state, retired after serving three terms in 2000 to fulfill the term limits pledge he made when he was first elected in 1994. Coburn has also come under fire recently for suggesting that abortionists should face the death penalty.

The Democrats nominated Rep. Brad Carson, a pro-abortion Democrat occasionally willing to defy his party's liberal leadership. Carson, 37, is a Rhodes scholar first elected to the House of Representatives in 2000 when he won the seat left vacant by Coburn's retirement.
Carson and Coburn are charismatic and articulate, and this is a competitive race. Coburn's campaign has been tripped up, however, over comments he made describing members of the state legislature as "crapheads" who have destroyed investment in the state. Coburn, a practicing physician, has also come under fire his actions a decade ago when he sterilized a woman who was bleeding to death from an ectopic pregnancy. Coburn claims that the woman insisted that he do so. The woman, a Democrat, now insists that she did not. Regardless of who is telling the truth, the allegations have badly damaged Coburn's campaign. One recent poll had the race tied at 45%-45% for each candidate, while another had Carson leading by a 44%-39% margin. However, Oklahoma's strong GOP leanings will help Coburn offset the edge Carson currently has. Bush won Oklahoma with sixty percent of the vote, and Carson is the only Democrat in the state's seven-person congressional delegation.

Colorado (Open)
Two term Democrat turned Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell seemed a lock to win a third term when he announced his retirement in early 2004. Republicans turned to popular Gov. Bill Owens to run for the unexpectedly vacant seat, but Owens declined, as did his Lt. Governor, and Representatives Beauprez, Tancredo, Musgrave, and McInnis. The only Republican willing to file for the seat was former three term Rep. Bob Schaffer, a staunch pro-life and pro-marriage conservative who retired to fulfill the pledge he made to only serve three terms. However, the GOP establishment began to worry that Rep. Schaeffer could not hold on to the seat, and recruited former brewing magnate Peter Coors to run for the seat as well. Coors is a center right Republican who is less conservative than Schaeffer, and while he is pro-life he has also indicated that he is not willing to support the Federal Marriage Amendment. In the August primary Coors defeated Schaeffer by twenty points.

The Democrats had been unable to recruit any prominent candidate to run against Campbell, and had finally persuaded the little known liberal educator Mike Miles to enter the race. After Campbell stepped down the state's Attorney General, Ken Salazaar, entered the race. Slightly more pragmatic than Miles, who is seen as a left wing true believer, Salazar nonetheless supports legal abortion. A popular politician who has been elected twice to statewide office, Salazar easily breezed past Miles in the Democratic primary.

Colorado is a state with a definite Republican bent, but this will still be a tough race for the GOP. Salazar is popular, has high name identification, and has no obvious negatives to exploit. Polling shows the race a dead heat. One had Coors up by one point, 49%-48%. Another had Salazar leading by the same margin, 46%-45%. Neither party can currently claim a clear advantage in the race for Campbell's seat, and this race will probably remain too close to call until November 2nd.

Louisiana (Open Seat)
Three term Democratic Sen. John Breaux decided to retire from public life in December 2003, and creating a highly competitive race to succeed him. One of the few remaining moderate Democrats in the Senate, the pro-life Breaux anointed Democratic Rep. Chris John as his successor. The moderate John has a lifetime rating of 51 from the American Conservative Union and 58 from the Christian Coalition, much higher than most Democrats. However, Breaux's endorsement has not prevented several other more liberal Democrats from entering the race. State Treasurer John Kennedy, and State Rep. Arthur Morrell have both entered the race, with Kennedy and John closely competitive in the polls and Morrell a distant third.

By contrast, the Republican's have united behind conservative Rep. David Vitter, who has begun aggressively raising money for his campaign. With the endorsements of President Bush and the rest of the Republicans in the Louisiana Congressional delegation, Vitter has a secure lock on the GOP nomination.

Under Louisiana's unique election laws, every candidate will run on the same ballot, regardless of party, in November 2004. If no candidate secures a majority of the vote, then the state will hold a run-off election between the top two contenders. Louisiana is one of the least Republican states in the South, and the state Republican Party lacks organization and resources. Republicans lost the 2002 Senate election run-off by four points in 2002, and the 2003 gubernatorial run-off by a similar margin. However, if the Democrats ultimately choose a liberal nominee Vitter will have a solid shot at becoming the first Republican elected to the Senate from Louisiana since the Reconstruction.

Alaska
In 2002 Alaskan voters elected Sen. Frank Murkowski Governor, and he promptly appointed his daughter, then State House Majority Leader Lisa Murkowski, to fill his vacant seat in the Senate. She must now run to win a full term in her own right, a task made more difficult by anger over the blatant nepotism that lead to her appointment, and the unpopularity of her father, who has proposed creating a state income tax. As a pro-abortion Republican, who has voted to spend taxpayer dollars on abortions, many conservatives are unhappy with Murkowski's performance and she faces a challenge in the Republican primary from conservative former State Senate President Mike Miller. However, Murkowski has voted solidly with the Republican leadership to override Democratic filibusters against Bush's judicial nominees, and supported the partial birth abortion ban.

On the Democratic side, former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles has opted to run for this Senate seat. Despite serving two terms, however, Knowles never topped 51% of the vote in either of his election victories. He has a record as a moderate Democrat, primarily because of his strong support for drilling for oil in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, a position that almost all Alaskan politicians support. Unfortunately, Gov. Knowles position on the abortion issue is no better than Murkowski's, and he would not vote to end Democratic filibusters of Bush's judicial nominees.

Recent polls show a close race, with Knowles at 46% to Murkowski's 45%. While voters do not appreciate nepotism, and many conservative Alaskans are angered by Murkowski's pro-abortion record, she does have some advantages. Alaska is a heavily Republican state that gave Bush a thirty-one point win in 2000. Additionally, she is strongly supported by Alaska's other Senator, Ted Stevens, the powerful and popular chairman of the Senate appropriations committee. Barring any major gaffes by either side, this should remain a close and competitive race until November.

South Dakota
With Democrats clinging to a narrow one-seat majority in the Senate during the 107th Congress, President Bush persuaded South Dakota Rep. John Thune to run against freshman Democratic Senator Tim Johnson in 2002. Thune, South Dakota's only Representative, lost by a mere 524 votes. Even as Republicans swept almost every other public office in heavily Republican South Dakota, the state voted for Johnson primarily because voters wanted to preserve Senator Tom Daschle's position of Senate Majority Leader, and the billions of dollars in pork it entailed. Despite Thune's defeat, Republicans gained control of the Senate. Now the pro-life and pro-family Thune is challenging Sen. Daschle as he prepares to seek a fourth term.

Daschle has led the congressional opposition to President Bush and his policies. Originally elected as a pro-life candidate in 1986, he subsequently switched positions and became a staunch supporter of legal abortion, although he voted for the partial birth abortion ban. He was instrumental in persuading the Democratic caucus to filibuster Bush's judicial nominees, a tactic never before used in the entire history of the Republic. He has fought Bush's tax cuts, and his attempts to save Social Security from bankruptcy by allowing younger workers to invest their earnings in something other than the government. On virtually every issue, he has led the liberal charge against the President.

This will complicate Daschle's re-election bid, because South Dakota is a conservative Republican state that gave President Bush sixty percent of the vote in 2000. Before he was majority leader, Daschle could effectively hide his liberalism, but that is no longer possible. In 2002, Thune lost because South Dakotans decided they would be better off with the Federal funding Daschle could deliver as majority leader, despite the fact that they disagreed with many of his political views. Now that Daschle is once again the minority leader, he cannot deliver the pork he once could, and the key issues of the campaign have once more become Daschle's liberalism versus Thune's conservatism.

Still, South Dakota is a small state, and Daschle knows many of the state's voters personally. He has a more in sorrow than in anger attitude that allows him to project a non-partisan demeanor, even as he fires partisan broadsides at the GOP. As Senate minority leader, Daschle has easy access to funds, and has raised more than ten millions dollars for the campaign. The two most recent polls disagree on who is leading the race. Thune leads by 50% - 47% in one, while Daschle has a 50%-45% advantage in the other. This race will come down to the wire, and neither candidate has a clear advantage.

Competitive Race, Republican Edge

Georgia (Open)
When Republican Sen. Paul Coverdell suddenly died in July 2000, Georgia's Governor appointed former Democratic Gov. Zell Miller to replace him. Georgia's voters elected him to serve the rest of Sen. Coverdell's term in Nov. 2000, but Sen. Miller, 72, has announced that he will not run for a full term in 2004. Since he came to Washington in 2000, Miller has accumulated a conservative voting record. He supported Bush's tax cuts, Bush's judicial nominees, the War on Terror, and has endorsed Bush for a second term. Republicans might technically pick up the seat in November 2004, but for almost all extents and purposes the Republican Party has already won it.

Following the Democratic wipeout in Georgia in 2002, which saw an incumbent Democratic governor, incumbent Senator, the speaker of the State House, and the President of the State Senate all go down to defeat, the Democrats have had difficulty recruiting in the Peach state. The Democratic nominee will be one term Rep. Denise Majette. However she has little funding or name recognition, and few political observers in Georgia expect her to win.

The Republican nominee is moderate Rep. Johnny Isakson, who lost to Miller in the 1990 race for Governor. He also lost the 1996 GOP Senate primary after he ran ads touting his opposition to a constitutional ban on abortion. This time around he says he opposes abortion except in cases of rape, incest, and the life of the mother. Mid-August polls had him leading Majette by 51% - 37%, although Democratic polling shows a closer race. Isakson is almost certain to win the general election in a state which voted for President Bush by twelve points and which the Democrats are not seriously contesting.

South Carolina (Open Seat)
Six term Democratic Senator Ernest Hollings announced his retirement from the Senate in August 2003, creating a pick up opportunity for Republicans. The South is the most heavily Republican region of America, and South Carolina is the most heavily Republican state in the South. The Republican nominee is conservative Rep. Jim DeMint, who defeated former Gov. David Beasley in the GOP primary by a commanding 59% - 41% margin. Rep. DeMint has distinguished himself as a leading and principled conservative in the House of Representatives and is a strong advocate of both the sanctity of life and marriage.

The Democrats have unified behind Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, who is the reason Republicans can't count on winning this Senate seat in one of the most Republican states in the country. A popular statewide elected official, South Carolina's voters re-elected Tenenbaum with sixty percent of the vote in 2002, even as Republicans easily defeated Democratic Gov. Hodges and won Strom Thurmond's open Senate seat.

Tenenbaum represents the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, and despite steps to moderate her image by endorsing the Federal Marriage Amendment, she has taken strongly pro-abortion and pro-gun control stands. These views are out of step with the views of the majority of South Carolina's voters and will make it difficult for Tenenbaum to defeat DeMint, particularly since the Democrats have nominated liberal John Kerry for President. In a mid-September poll DeMint held a commanding twelve point lead over Tenenbaum, 51% - 39%.

Pennsylvania
Liberal Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, who will chair the Judiciary committee if he wins re-election and if Republicans keep control of the Senate, strongly supports abortion and played a critical role in defeating the nomination of Robert Bork to the Supreme Court. Had Bork, instead of Justice Kennedy, been confirmed, the 5-4 Casey decision handed down in 1992 would have almost certainly overturned Roe v. Wade. Additionally, Specter opposes school vouchers, voted to reduce President Bush's tax relief, raise the minimum wage, oppose medical malpractice liability reform, and is also considered supportive of the homosexual rights movement. His lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union is only 42%.

These liberal stands led conservative GOP Rep. Pat Toomey to challenge Specter in the April primary and nearly ended Specter's quest for a fifth term. Specter barely edged out pro-life Rep. Pat Toomey by a 51%-49% margin. Specter is now the favorite against three term Rep. Joe Hoeffel, a liberal Democrat from the Philadelphia suburbs who strongly supports legal abortion, since Specter's positions appeal to many voters in Hoeffel's liberal base. Recent polls show Specter with a fifteen to twenty point lead over Hoeffel and this race currently leans Republican.

Competitive Race, Democratic Edge

None

Lean Democratic, but Potentially Competitive

Washington State
Feminist Senator Patty Murray first won election to the Congress from Washington State in 1992, and has accumulated a strongly pro-abortion voting record ever since. She supports partial birth abortions, and repeatedly sought to permit abortions at military hospitals. She earned a zero rating from the Christian Coalition in 2001, and is considered unlikely to vote for the Federal Marriage Amendment. In her eleven years in the Senate, Murray has been a loyal foot soldier for the left wing of the Democratic Party.

Republican leaders initially tried to persuade moderate Rep. Jennifer Dunn to run against Murray in 2004, but the pro-abortion Dunn decided to seek re-election to her House seat. After Dunn bowed out, conservative five term Rep. George Nethercutt opted to challenge Murray. Nethercutt became the first challenger to defeat the Speaker of the House in 132 years when he upset Rep. Tom Foley in 1994. Though he subsequently broke his pledge to serve only three terms, he has still been re-elected by wide margins. He is a pro-life and pro-family candidate who earned a 100% rating from the Christian coalition in 2002, and has been critical of Democratic attempts to block Bush's judges.

Murray is widely regarded as a somewhat weak incumbent, having few accomplishments that she can show to the voters. She leads Nethercutt in the polls by a 51% - 39% margin, but this is primarily because Nethercutt has never run statewide, and is thus unknown by many voters. While a twelve point lead is healthy, it is a danger sign for any incumbent when their re-elect numbers approach fifty percent, particularly when against a challenger with low name identification. Washington State has a substantial number of left wing voters, and Bush won only 45% of the vote in the state in 2000. The State's liberal bent should be enough to secure Murray a third term, but a Nethercutt upset is a definite possibility.

California
Sen. Barbara Boxer is seeking her third Senate term from California. Boxer, with the most liberal voting record of any member of the U.S. Senate, has been a staunch advocate of abortion on demand, defending partial birth abortions, pushing to use taxpayer funds to provide abortions for poor women, and vowing to filibuster any Supreme court nominee who would overturn Roe v. Wade.

The Republican nominee is former two-term California Secretary of State Bill Jones. In the general election, Boxer leads Jones by a 53% - 35% margin, above the critical fifty percent level. However, Boxer's poll numbers have been weak throughout her two terms in office, primarily because not even the Californian electorate is as far left as she is. Nonetheless, Boxer has always managed to win in November. Given California's liberal leanings, she will probably do so again. However, the state is very politically volatile at the moment, as the recent election of Gov. Schwarzenegger demonstrated, and Jones could still pull off an upset.

Illinois (Open)
In 1998 conservative Peter Fitzgerald narrowly defeated the scandal tarred Democratic Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun. However, Illinois has been trending increasingly Democratic - Al Gore won the state in 2000 by twelve points - and Fitzgerald decided to retire rather than face a bruising battle for a second term. Republicans attempted to recruit former liberal Gov. Jim Edgar to run, but he declined, leading the Republicans to nominate former businessman and teacher Jack Ryan. Ryan was forced out of the race after his divorce papers were unsealed and revealed that he attempted to persuade his former wife, Jerri Ryan of Star Trek Voyager and Boston Public fame, to have sex with him in public on multiple occasions. The Republicans have now settled on former Ambassador and two time failed Maryland Senatorial candidate Alan Keyes. Keyes, who is black, is a solid pro-life and pro-family conservative, but his campaign has been hurt by a series of embarrassing missteps, such as when he suggested that blacks should receive reparations for slavery and when he attacked Vice President Cheney's daughter on the radio. Keyes is running a poorly manage campaign and has little chance of victory. He stood at 17% of the vote in one recent poll.

The Democratic candidate is African-American State Senator Barak Obama, who represents the liberal wing of the Democratic party and is staunchly pro-abortion. Illinois is an increasingly liberal state, and the state GOP has been beset with infighting and scandal. Facing a weak Republican nominee from out of state, Obama leads by fifty points in the polls and is all but certain to cruise to victory in November.

.