Louisiana Governor's Race
This one actually isn't until Saturday the 15th, since elections in the Bayou are nuts. Candidate's don't run with party affiliations on the ballot, and the general election was earlier this month. Since no two candidate's got a majority of the vote, the top two vote getters advanced to the runoff on the 15th. Those candidates would be Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco, the Democrat, and Bobby Jindal, the All-Star GOP nominee. Seriously.

Blanco is a two term Lt. Gov, who is moderate as Democrats go, being pro-life, not a leftist ideologue on econ issues, and had less than blistering words for a voucher pilot program idea. In fact, her relative moderation may be a problem for Blanco. She squeaked into the runoff with 18%, two points ahead of the Atty. General, and a few more points ahead of an ex-Congressmen, both of whom were bona fide Liberals. In fact, if they hadn't split the black vote between them, Blanco wouldn't have made it. Now, she is having difficulty energizing black turnout. Democrats can't win without decent black turnout (African Americans are 30% of the population, and typically 25% of the vote), but Blanco hasn't been able to energize her base. Which is a problem for her, since she is facing a stellar GOP candidate.

Bobby Jindal. Bobby the All American All Star Jindal. The man is 32, and already the Rhodes scholar has served as: Director of the LA medicaid department (where he cut costs and fraud and swung a $400m deficit into a $200m surplus), Chancellor of the LA state University system, worked for the Breaux-Frist medicare reform panel in 1998, and served for a few years as Assistant Secretary for HHS for Bush. In general, he is all but a certified genius. He's only 32. He is, and is campaigning as a, a stanch conservative, running on a pro-life, pro-marriage, pro-voucher, down the line can do conservative kind of guy. He is also a minority, being Indian-American (the continent, not native American). His family moved here from India before he was born, and he converted to Catholicism in his teens. It helps in America, if you want to be a strong conservative, to also not be white. It will really help Republicans if we elect a minority Governor in the heart of the Deep South. Plus, he would make a great candidate on the national ticket a decade or so down the line.

Current polls have the race tied, one independent poll has Blanco up two, a GOP poll has Jindal up five, but you can't rely on partisan polls. On the whole, I think Jindal will win, primarily because I want him to, and because it would be cool if he did, but also becuase Bush won LA by eight points (although it is the only state in the Union to have NEVER elected a Republican to the Senate), and because Blanco has nothing new to offer. She is a career politician without a vision or a plan, save her own election. That is kind of a hard sell. Plus Jindal has outraised her 2-1 or 3-1 or something like that. Look for a Jindal to keep this state in GOP hands, but not in a landslide.

Kentucky Governor
For 36 straight years the Bluegrass state has elected and re-elected Democrat Governor's. This Tuesday, that will probably change. The state has been trending Republican in recent years; Bush recieved 57% of the vote in 2000, both KY Senator's, and five of six congressional seats belong to the GOP. Party switchers gave the GOP a 20-18 edge in the state Senate, which the '02 elections expanded to a 21-17 majority. Still, the Dems have a near 2-1 margin in the state house, and as I said, the state hasn't elected a GOP Governor since LBJ was President.

However, the Democratic nominee, Atty. Gen. Ben Chandler, has a rather large albatross around his party's neck, outgoing Gov. Paul Patton, who has been caught up in a rather nasty sex scandal. It seems the married Governor and father wasn't just having an affair outside of marriage, but his mistress ran a nursing home the state sent Seniors to. When the affair broke off, Gov. Patton sent state investigators to inspect the nursing home and revoke his ex's license. Not so ethical on so many levels. Well, as Shakespear put it, Hell Hath no Fury, and the mistress went public, and KY is still a fairly traditional state. Patton poll numbers tanked, and he will no longer be challenging Sen. Bunning next year, indeed one recent poll has him at a 7% (!?!) approval rating. I'm still not sure that wasn't a typo, but that's what it said. Anyway, the state's GOP leanings, plus this, have given the GOP headwinds in their effort to capture the statehouse.

The Republican is Rep. Ernie Fletcher, M.D. He was elected to congress in 1998, picking up an open Democratic seat, and has been re-elected handily since. A fairly conservative guy, though he only voted for the D.C. voucher bill after DeLay twisted his arm, he isn't terribly charismatic, and has run a solid, but not inspiring campaign. He doesn't really need to inspire, however. Chandler tried to link him to the "Bush-Fletcher" economy, but stopped after realizing that with Bush at a 64% approval rating in KY, he was actually helping the good Doctor. Recent polls have Rep. Fletcher up 7-9 points, and, absent a stunning turnaround, he ought to win.

If he does win, that will set up a potentially competitive special election in his House seat this January. Bush won the district with 55-57% of the vote (sorry, I can't recall exactly which it was, somewhere in that range), so we ought to hold on, but it could be a tight race. Nonetheless, we have tons more cash than the Dems do, and Bush is popular in the state, so we ought to keep it in GOP hands.

Mississippi Governor
This race features GOP Lobbyist and former two term RNC head Haley Barbour against Democratic incumbent Ronnie Musgrove. I can't say I am enthused about Barbour, he is an establishment party hack, and if he isn't an out and out moderate, I have never got the feeling he was a conservative true believer. Still, he would be a better Gov. than Musgrove. Musgrove narrowly squeaked into office in '99 after winning a plurality of the vote. Under MS law, that meant it was up to the state house of Representatives to decide the election, and with a heavily Democratic legislature, Musgrove won on an 86-35 vote, or something close to that. He is a typical Democrat, and has been campaigning hard against "Washington Lobbyist" Haley Barbour who works for companies that "Poison our kids." That last is a verbatim quote from a Dem. attack ad. In the end, MS is a conservative state and the state economy isn't doing very well. Plus Barbour, being a rich washington lobbyist, has outraised Musgrove $10m to $6m. The only recent poll out has Barbour up 50-45, but he needs a clear majority to avoid sending the election to the legislature. He should win, but to be honest, I don't really care. Certainly not like I do about LA. A win is a win, but it is hard to get enthused about Barbour.

Philadelphia Mayor's race
In most races, when you have mismanaged your city for four years, and are behind in the polls, having the press discover that you are the target (but not the "subject") of an FBI investigation into corruption in City hall, so much so that they bugged your office, tends to cost you support. Sadly, not in Philly. Mayor Street looked like a goner until the above scandal came to light. Now democrats are rallying to him, and he is leading his GOP opponent by 13-17 points. Sam Katz narrowly lost to Street in '99, and now looks set to do so again. It is a pity, a Katz win would have been a major boost for the PA state GOP, a blow to Democratic Gov. (and former Philly Mayor) Ed Rendell, and a strong boost to GOP efforts to win in urban areas (A sorely needed boost, too, as Allegheny County Executive Jim Roddey appears set to lose his re-election bid in PA). Doesn't look like Katz will win now, but I could be wrong.

Virginia Legislature
After the 2000 census, the GOP redrew the political boundaries in Virginia, and went from 53 to 66 (sixty eight if you count two conservative independents who vote with the GOP) seats in the state House of Delegates. The Senate lines were also redrawn, but those seats didn't come up for re-election until now. Look for the GOP to stay around its 2-1 majority in the House, but add several more seats, probably between one and three, to its 23-17 senate edge. This will give a much more conservative cast to the senate, and make it next to impossible for Democratic Gov. Warner to do anything destructive in his remaining two years in office (before he gets term limited out).

New Jersey Legislature
Question: What does the NJ State Republican Party stand for?
Answer: Getting re-elected.

The Garden State GOP briefly threatened to adopt principles in 2001, as it nominated Conservative Bret Schundler to run for Governor. The moderates couldn't stand this, and sat on their hands and wallets in the fall, leading to the election of liberal Democrat, and party hack, Gov. Jim McGreevey. An independent redistricting panel that year was actually dominated by liberals (Pay attention: everyone who thinks legislative gerrymanders are evil and you can take the politics out of redistricting via an "independent panel." You can't!). When the Democrats ... I mean the non-partisan commission redrew the lines, they ripped the heart out of the GOP majority in the legislature. As Schundler went down to defeat, so did the 45-35 GOP margin in the assembly, with the Dems winning it 44-36. The 25-15 GOP senate edge transmogrified into a 20-20 tie.

Well, now its two years later, and a sour economy, a series of tax hikes, and political missteps have cost McGreevey a lot of support in this Democratic state. His approval ratings are in the 40% range, and the Dems have run from him in their campaigns. Well, from his appearance. He has raised millions of dollars for them, and they haven't minded that in the least. The GOP, meanwhile, doesn't believe in anything and has no program, no vision, no principles, nothing to offer the people of NJ except the fact they aren't Jim McGreevey. It might just be a convincing enough program to allow them to regain a majority in the Senate, and even the Assembly, which is now, after party switches, down to a 41-38 Democratic edge. McGreevey thought it would be fun if he replaced several incumbent Dem assemblymen with his own loyalists in the party nominating conventions. Not all the Democratic incumbents did. One switched to the Green party, and another uberliberal is now running as a Republican. The GOP might, as I said, pull out the victory despite themselves, but don't look for them to do anything useful with it.

Second Question: Why does the New Jersey legislature bother writing election laws?
Answer: Nobody Knows.

There is something about New Jersey and elections to narrowly divided Senate's that seems to invalidate legislative codes. This September a Democratic State Sen. in a swing district got in a fair amount of trouble for getting into a drunken fit in a casino, during the course of which he graphically described to a female Casino employee just what he'd like to do with her. He is married, with children, by the way. Well, he's now entered alcohol rehab, but that left the Dems almost sure to lose the seat. What are the Democrats to do? The filing deadline had long since passed for new candidates, but they didn't want to sacrifice the seat and potentially (shudder) hand Republicans control. Fortunately, last year's Senate election set a handy precedent that voters have a constitutional right not to have to choose between an unpopular Democrat and an electable Republican. Reading into the living, breathing, mutating state law, the NJ appellate court, and then the Supreme Court, discovered that the legislature didn't *really* mean it when they set the candidate replacement deadline before Sept. 27th, when Sen. Siegler (or something Italian like that that starts with an S) began his drunken ravings. Really, the Democrats have an extra-constitutional right not to lose elections. The deadline was struck down, the Dems replaced the Senator with one of the district's assemblymen, and the Dems now have a slight edge in the district.

So what is the nationwide rundown? Gov. Schwarzenegger has already picked up one Gubernatoral seat for the GOP, and the coming elections ought to add one to two more seats to the 27 state houses the Republican's now control. What are the nationwide implications? Well, assuming the GOP wins in KY, MS, and LA, it demonstrates that the south is becoming ever more Republican. GOP wins will also rebutt the Dem. contention that Bush is horribly unpopular, etc. etc., particularly following Ahnuld's election in Colleyvornia. A GOP win in NJ would stop McGreevey from wrecking the Garden State even more, but Bush isn't likely to win NJ in 2004 if it is a close election, though he probably would if it were a nationwide blow out. The real big story will be Jindal's election, if he wins it. This man is a superstar. Probably presidential material if he wins and is a successful governor. An ideal candidate in 2012 if Senator Clinton becomes President Clinton the second. He will probably he wind up as a VP nominee in the future, at the very least.