Welcome to 2004

In case you hadn't noticed, the election season is ramping up. With the first primaries set to occur less than a month from now, the American people's attention will soon be wrested away from The Simple Life and Average Joe 2 and turned to the slightly less absurd business of electing a President.

Pundits near and far predict a Bush re-election due to his strength on the two pivotal issues of this campaign, the recovering economy and The War on Terror, especially Iraq. Conventional wisdom holds that the only thing that could derail the Bush juggernaut would be another terror strike or a serious economic downturn. But the social issue of the day could upset this calculus, much to the chagrin of Karl Rove and the rest of the Bush team.

Consider the following scenario:

May 11: Dean secures the Democratic nomination after a serious race with Iowa winner Dick Gephardt.

May 12: The Massachusetts Assembly, in accordance with the Goodrich decision, passes legislation establishing "Marriage-B" as a civil union between any two persons with all the legal benefits of traditional marriage.

May 13: Guess what issue is at the top of the electorate's mind as they turn their minds to the newly set Presidential match-up?

Focus on this issue would impact the election in a radical way, because it would stretch the Bush coalition to the breaking point. Any indication that marriage may be redefined by the runaway courts-especially if a federal court like the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals looks to Goodrich a good interpretation of Lawrence - will stir social conservatives to demand action from the President.

Herein lies the rub. If Bush remains silent, he may depress his base to the point where they stay home in droves. This was the trick his father used to squander his chance at a second term. On the other hand, if the White House takes a firm position, like purposefully advocating a Federal Marriage Amendment, they may alienate the suburban moderates that Bush has tried to bring into the Republican tent. What is a Rove to do?

Lest you think that this is an overly pessimistic scenario, remember that gay marriage is currently the hottest issue of the culture war. Bush has passed his tax cuts and has embodied a strong national defense, but has been unable to deliver any legislative accomplishment to satisfy the demands of religious conservatives. (Senate Democrats have stymied the delivery of the other planned prize-appointment of conservative judges-by filibustering the cream of Bush's crop of nominees.) Yet faithful Catholics and biblical conservatives have supported the administration despite its odious education bill and its profligate Medicare expansion. Indeed, social conservatives-supposedly squirrelly and unable to compromise-have shown an amazing capacity to play big-picture, coalition politics. But now, when they want to call in their debts, the coalition is evaporating. Many of the conservative intelligentsia are jumping ship, leaving the social conservatives to win this one on their own.

Unfortunately, this scenario may prove unavoidable. The status quo-marriage being reserved for traditional couples-would have been inert, but activist courts like the Massachusetts Supreme Court appear to be forcing the issue. Now it appears that we will spend the next several years debating the merits of Christian civilization's foundational institution.

Conservatives should take heart, for the Democrats have their own difficulties with the ramifications of gay marriage being pushed to the political foreground. Dean has already pointed out that Democrats lose when southerners vote on "God, guns, and gays." But the Democrats may think that their chances would improve if the issue were anything other than the Bush boom and Bush's successful protection of America's interests since 9/11.