By: Keith Miller

8 October 2004 Electoral College Football: How college football conferences may influence the presidential election

With the election only weeks away, I have been watching the polls closely; Gallup, Zogby, and Rasmussen of course, but the AP, ESPN/Coaches, and BCS projections as well.

Yes, I confess despite the importance of this year's Presidential election, my love for college football has led me to spend at least as much time following the race between USC and Oklahoma as the race between George W. Bush and John Kerry.

Actually, these two American pageantries share much in common; from rabidly partisan supporters to the occasional disputed champion. And this fall, they may be more intertwined than ever with Kerry making several football-related gaffes which could cost him votes in crucial swing states.

College football can also provide a way to examine the regionalization of American politics. Comparing the prospective Electoral College outcome to the world of college football shows that President Bush is improving over his showing in 2000 in just one region: Big Ten country.

In 2000, each the major football conferences voted almost unanimously, so a major shift in one conference could be an important indicator of growing strength for the President or a regional weakness for Kerry compared to Al Gore.

The BCS Conferences in the 2000 Election
For the uninitiated, six major conferences-the ACC, the Big East, the Big Ten, the Big XII, the SEC, and the Pac-10-control college football nation. The six champions gain admission into the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) whose games help determine the national champion.

Political observers may be interested to find that the states represented by any of these six conferences tend to vote as a bloc with few exceptions. The SEC states all voted for Bush in 2000 while the Pac-10 states-sans Arizona-went for Gore.

Here is a complete rundown of the 2000 results. (Some schools have changed conferences since 2000, but for simplicity's sake I am listing them according to their 2004 alignment).

ACC (GOP 10-Dem 1)

Only Maryland, the northernmost state in the ACC, bucked the trend of Bush support in the Southeast.

SEC (GOP 12-Dem 0)

The Southern strength of the Republican Party was again illustrated by a Bush sweep in the most Southern of conferences.

Big XII (GOP 11-Dem 1)

Only Iowa dissented from the Bush support in the heartland, a fact which may partially explained by the fact that the state is split between the Big XII and the Big 10 supporters.

Pac-10 (Dem 8-GOP 2)

The Arizona schools, the latest additions to the conference, supported Bush, but the majority of this-the conference of Stanford and Berkeley-went for Gore.

Big East (Dem 6-GOP 1)

This conference of Democratic supporters will be transformed into a 50-50 conference next year with the addition of Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida, all Bush states, and the subtraction of Temple and Boston College.

Big Ten (Dem 8-GOP 3)

The most divided conference, still gave a strong 8-3 majority to Gore.

Kerry's Big Ten Gap
Look at ColdHeartedTruth.com's current projection of the how the Electoral College might break down this year. As you can see, very few states are likely to change hands. As of October 8, the only two state that have "swung" are Wisconsin and Iowa and the next closest is Minnesota. All three of these states have voted Democrat in every Presidential election since the 1984 Reagan landslide. What is the common factor of all three of those states? They all have Big Ten football teams. Looking a little further, Michigan and Pennsylvania, two more Big Ten/Gore states, also seem to be in play. Something is going on.

I am not just cherry picking to make my case. New Mexico-closer than Florida in 2000-is the only non-Big Ten Gore state that the Bush campaign thinks it has a good chance to win. The New Mexico Lobos play in the non-BCS Mountain West Conference and, sure enough, a swing by New Mexico would make that conference unanimous for Bush. The Kerry campaign holds out hope that they can win in three Bush states: New Hampshire, Florida, and Ohio. New Hampshire is up in Big East/Kerry country and would like New Mexico would make that region's map even more of a monochrome. Meanwhile, Florida has three schools playing in two Bush conferences. A Kerry win in the Sunshine State would seem to buck this trend.

The final crucial state is Ohio; another home to a Big Ten school. Although Kerry has managed to remain competitive there, I think the data still fits within this hypothesis. Ohio has seen a very soft economy and job market over the last few years. But instead of backing the challenger, the Buckeye State's Big Ten values seem to have kept them in the Bush column.

An End to Big Ten Democrats?
From the data I have offered here, it is uncertain why Big Ten voters would be trending Republican, but it is clear that they are doing so. For some reason Kerry has a big problem connecting with voters from the upper Midwest.

Part of that reason might actually be football related. Twice in the last few months, Senator John Kerry has committed serious gaffes when trying to claim gridiron awareness. Campaigning in southern Michigan he lauded "Buckeye football," and heard a chorus of boos before he realized he had crossed the border into Wolverine country. The next month, during a stop in Wisconsin, Kerry referred to the home of the Packers as "Lambert Field." The polls reflected an immediate drop in his approval ratings in the land of the cheeseheads.

Perhaps my analysis is fanciful or even farcical, but if the Democrats truly lose their strength in Big Ten country without making inroads in the land of the Big XII, SEC and ACC, the Republicans could have the makings of an electoral lock on the Presidency.

Something to consider while you watch both the gridders and the pols play this fall.


Keith Miller is a political analyst for The Evangel Society. He can be contacted at miller@evangelsociety.org