With
the election only weeks away, I have been watching the polls closely;
Gallup, Zogby, and Rasmussen of course, but the AP, ESPN/Coaches,
and BCS projections as well.
Yes, I confess despite the importance of this year's Presidential
election, my love for college football has led me to spend at least
as much time following the race between USC and Oklahoma as the race
between George W. Bush and John Kerry.
Actually, these two American pageantries share much in common; from
rabidly partisan supporters to the occasional disputed champion. And
this fall, they may be more intertwined than ever with Kerry making
several football-related gaffes which could cost him votes in crucial
swing states.
College football can also provide a way to examine the regionalization
of American politics. Comparing the prospective Electoral College
outcome to the world of college football shows that President Bush
is improving over his showing in 2000 in just one region: Big Ten
country.
In 2000, each the major football conferences voted almost unanimously,
so a major shift in one conference could be an important indicator
of growing strength for the President or a regional weakness for Kerry
compared to Al Gore.
The BCS Conferences in the 2000 Election
For the uninitiated, six major conferences-the ACC, the Big East,
the Big Ten, the Big XII, the SEC, and the Pac-10-control college
football nation. The six champions gain admission into the Bowl Championship
Series (BCS) whose games help determine the national champion.
Political observers may be interested to find that the states represented
by any of these six conferences tend to vote as a bloc with few exceptions.
The SEC states all voted for Bush in 2000 while the Pac-10 states-sans
Arizona-went for Gore.
Here is a complete rundown of the 2000 results. (Some schools have
changed conferences since 2000, but for simplicity's sake I am listing
them according to their 2004 alignment).
ACC (GOP 10-Dem 1)
| GOP: |
North Carolina (Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina,
N.C. State), |
| |
South Carolina (Clemson), |
| |
Georgia (Georgia Tech), |
| |
Virginia (Virginia, Virginia Tech), |
| |
Florida (Miami, Florida St.) |
| |
|
| Dem: |
Maryland (Maryland) |
Only Maryland, the northernmost state in the ACC, bucked the trend
of Bush support in the Southeast.
SEC (GOP 12-Dem 0)
| GOP: |
Arkansas (Arkansas), |
| |
Louisiana (LSU), |
| |
Tennessee (Tennessee) |
| |
Kentucky (Kentucky), |
| |
Mississippi (Ole Miss, Mississippi St.),
Alabama (Alabama, Auburn),
Georgia (Georgia),
Florida (Florida),
South Carolina (South Carolina) |
| |
|
| Dem: |
None |
The Southern strength of the Republican Party was again illustrated
by a Bush sweep in the most Southern of conferences.
Big XII (GOP 11-Dem 1)
| GOP: |
Texas (Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas Tech),
|
| |
Oklahoma (Oklahoma, Oklahoma St.),
Missouri (Missouri),
Kansas (Kansas, Kansas St.),
Nebraska (Nebraska),
Colorado (Colorado) |
| |
|
| Dem: |
Iowa (Iowa St.) |
Only Iowa dissented from the Bush support in the heartland, a fact
which may partially explained by the fact that the state is split
between the Big XII and the Big 10 supporters.
Pac-10 (Dem 8-GOP 2)
| GOP: |
Arizona (Arizona, Arizona St.) |
| |
|
| Dem: |
California (California, Stanford, UCLA, USC),
|
| |
Oregon (Oregon, Oregon St.),
Washington (Washington, Washington St.)
|
The Arizona schools, the latest additions to the conference, supported
Bush, but the majority of this-the conference of Stanford and Berkeley-went
for Gore.
Big East (Dem 6-GOP 1)
| GOP: |
West Virginia (West Virginia) |
| |
|
| Dem: |
Connecticut (Connecticut), |
| |
New Jersey (Rutgers),
Pennsylvania (Temple, Pittsburgh),
Massachusetts (Boston College),
New York (Syracuse) |
This conference of Democratic supporters will be transformed into
a 50-50 conference next year with the addition of Louisville, Cincinnati
and South Florida, all Bush states, and the subtraction of Temple
and Boston College.
Big Ten (Dem 8-GOP 3)
| GOP: |
Indiana (Indiana, Purdue), |
| |
Ohio St. (Ohio St.) |
| |
|
| Dem: |
Minnesota (Minnesota), |
| |
Wisconsin (Wisconsin),
Iowa (Iowa),
Illinois (Illinois, Northwestern),
Michigan (Michigan, Michigan St.),
Pennsylvania (Penn St.) |
The most divided conference, still gave a strong 8-3 majority to
Gore.
Kerry's Big Ten Gap
Look at ColdHeartedTruth.com's current projection of the how the
Electoral College might break down this year. As you can see, very
few states are likely to change hands. As of October 8, the only
two state that have "swung" are Wisconsin and Iowa and
the next closest is Minnesota. All three of these states have voted
Democrat in every Presidential election since the 1984 Reagan landslide.
What is the common factor of all three of those states? They all
have Big Ten football teams. Looking a little further, Michigan
and Pennsylvania, two more Big Ten/Gore states, also seem to be
in play. Something is going on.
I am not just cherry picking to make my case. New Mexico-closer
than Florida in 2000-is the only non-Big Ten Gore state that the
Bush campaign thinks it has a good chance to win. The New Mexico
Lobos play in the non-BCS Mountain West Conference and, sure enough,
a swing by New Mexico would make that conference unanimous for Bush.
The Kerry campaign holds out hope that they can win in three Bush
states: New Hampshire, Florida, and Ohio. New Hampshire is up in
Big East/Kerry country and would like New Mexico would make that
region's map even more of a monochrome. Meanwhile, Florida has three
schools playing in two Bush conferences. A Kerry win in the Sunshine
State would seem to buck this trend.
The final crucial state is Ohio; another home to a Big Ten school.
Although Kerry has managed to remain competitive there, I think
the data still fits within this hypothesis. Ohio has seen a very
soft economy and job market over the last few years. But instead
of backing the challenger, the Buckeye State's Big Ten values seem
to have kept them in the Bush column.
An End to Big Ten Democrats?
From the data I have offered here, it is uncertain why Big Ten voters
would be trending Republican, but it is clear that they are doing
so. For some reason Kerry has a big problem connecting with voters
from the upper Midwest.
Part of that reason might actually be football related. Twice in
the last few months, Senator John Kerry has committed serious gaffes
when trying to claim gridiron awareness. Campaigning in southern
Michigan he lauded "Buckeye football," and heard a chorus
of boos before he realized he had crossed the border into Wolverine
country. The next month, during a stop in Wisconsin, Kerry referred
to the home of the Packers as "Lambert Field." The polls
reflected an immediate drop in his approval ratings in the land
of the cheeseheads.
Perhaps my analysis is fanciful or even farcical, but if the Democrats
truly lose their strength in Big Ten country without making inroads
in the land of the Big XII, SEC and ACC, the Republicans could have
the makings of an electoral lock on the Presidency.
Something to consider while you watch both the gridders and the
pols play this fall.
Keith Miller is a political analyst for The Evangel Society. He
can be contacted at miller@evangelsociety.org
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