YEEEEEAAAAHHHHHHH!

The reversal that we witnessed over the past two months has been amazing. Dean seemed unstoppable. Now Kerry is the nominee. We've seen "Joe-mentum," John Edwards' vicious attack ads, and Dennis Kucinich try to use a visual aide in a radio debate.

But enough of that craziness. All of this is rather extraneous, because the next President of the United States will either be Hillary Clinton or another Republican; January 2009.

But whom will the GOP nominate next time around. That, to me, is the intriguing question of the hour. While much will change in the interim, some politicians are already styling themselves as the next nominee. Oddly, Vice President Cheney is not one of them. Cheney's age and health problems are likely to keep him out of the race. If that is the case it will be the first election since 1952 to feature neither the sitting President nor the VP.

National Review's David Frum handicapped the race in the following way here and here.

LIKELY

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Arizona Senator John McCain
Colorado Gov. Bill Owens
New York Gov. George Pataki
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney

POSSIBLE

Sen. Lamar Alexander
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush
Vice President Richard Cheney
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich
Sec. State Colin Powell
National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice
Homeland Security Sec. Tom Ridge
Former New Jersey Gov. Christie Todd Whitman
Virginia Senator George Allen

This list, while accurate, is laughable. Half of these contestants are pro-choice. While there might be room in the Republican Party for pro-choice politicians, it seems strange that so many of the party's minority would try to carry its mantle. Can anyone imagine a pro-life candidate pretending to the Democratic crown? Beyond the single issue of abortion, many of these candidates are very much moderate, centrist Republicans.

But, despite the conservative base of the GOP, a pro-choice nominee could well become a reality. As Frum noted,

The time for conservatives in the Republican party to start thinking about their next leader is now. If they wait, they're likely to discover that the decision has been made for them.

Conservative support needs to preempt any sense of inevitability for a Giuliani nomination.

The conservatives don't seem to have a clear champion. Of Frum's list, Frist, Cheney, Bush and Owens appear to be the best choices, but each has drawbacks. Bill Frist seems solid on most issues, but his conciliatory tone in the Senate rings of Bob Dole. Dick Cheney's aforementioned health is the stuff of late-night-jokes and he has displayed little desire to assume the top office. Jeb Bush has an excellent record and a somewhat familiar political moniker. Alas, the specter of a Bush "dynasty" would likely cost him support. Bill Owens has built up a fantastic record as Governor of Colorado. Last summer National Review devoted a cover story to Owen with the headline, "The Nation's Best Governor." Unfortunately, last September Gov. Owen's separated from his wife of nearly thrity years. While they have not divorced, and a reconciliation remains a possibility, it appears that his personal problems will tarnish his rising star.

So, who should the Republicans nominate? Um..., wait..., just a second...